The performance of relationship between domestic domestic product and unemployment

نویسنده

  • Agnieszka Ziomek
چکیده

The paper concerns the characteristic of conditions and processes, which permanently influence the unemployment, as the result of domestic product fluctuation. The economic reality determinates the character of the relationship between the domestic production and labour market as the system. It signals, the connection between the two variables depends not only on the domestic product change, but also on a wide spectrum of factors. The variables, representing factors are categorized into groups. Criterions of the devision are the affection object employer and employee and a size of the object. For the system analysis has been applicated the system dynamics method. This method lets for an investigation of a high number simultaneously operating and related processes, which regulate reaction the unemployment on the domestic product changes. INTRODUCTION The issue of the relationship between the domestic product and unemployment did not find the expression in the present economic literature. In the analysis on the relation between frequent inflation and unemployment the connection between unemployment and domestic product, is accepted as the assumption or basement for the further consideration. The domestic product and unemployment relationship seems to be reasonable, from the economic point of view. Okun's Law states that, in general when the domestic product measured as GDP, or the domestic production index rises, relative to its potential level, then the unemployment (rate of unemployment) should decrease and otherwise, when domestic product decreases, unemployment will rise [1],[2]. The change of unemployment can be caused by a real, and also by an expected change in the total income, or income of a company. When this change is caused by expectations, the real change in unemployment exceeds the change in domestic product, measured by any statistical indicator. What is the reason for the existence of this relationship? The studied connection has a positive influence on the economic development and growth. It means that even if domestic product declines and unemployment rises the economy can keep balance on the labour market in the long period. So, when an employer effectively adjusts the labour factor to the market situation and the company's capabilities, a domestic product decline less deep will be. Moreover, when these adjustments are quickly performed it is possible to avoid high costs of the surplus employment or loses not realised domestic production. Therefore, the positive character of relationship derives also from the reduction of domestic product gap. The domestic product gap decrease is possible, among other things, through the rise in the number of employed and reduction of unemployment, which is described as the unused labour force. The permanent domestic product and unemployment relation has a stronger effect on the social distribution of domestic income growth. So, the profit of the income growth is not divided with the same algorithm. The last boom phase of the American economy performance is the proper example. The growing income relatively improved the situation of each social group. However, differences in the obtained income get deeper, in spite of the economic policy, tended to reduce a high differentiation [3]. So, when the relationship exists in the market mechanism, it can be said, the conditions for the entrepreneurship development are satisfied. It is difficult to say if the social profit will be gained. The situation in the labour market improves, in the context of market equilibrium, but the security and certainty of job falls. For the post Soviet societies it is the new style of a life and work. The troubles with the acceptance of quick adjustments regulated by the profit rate cause the lag in, or blockade a free performance of processes. Nevertheless, positive connection for economic system will not get stronger, because of the serious resistance to the transition in the labour market conditions [4]. We have some types of changes in economy fluctuations, caused by different reasons. It is regulated by cyclical economic behaviour, with the expansion and recession phase, structural transition, seasonal and accidental fluctuation. In the Polish economy, the type of cyclical behaviour has been systematically studied since The Second World War. We can not claim that cyclical economic behaviour started in 1990. Even under central plan totalitarian economy some authors stated echo of specific cycles, in the context of investment processes [5]. In the last decade, these types of changes were a continuation of the previous cycle with a deep crisis in 1900-1992. The variability of economic behaviour is characteristic for the U.S. economy. In Poland this kind of symmetric domestic product and unemployment changes is not crucial, because the intensive restructuring, which is the most important task since 1990 disturbs the free economic behaviour. Since 1990, especially in the first four years, in Poland the structural transformation process dominated the economy. Obviously, it was caused by the transformation of economic system into a free market system. Significant adjustments occurred in the industrial sector and less in agriculture. Services

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تاریخ انتشار 2002